Brisbane could be more expensive than Melbourne ‘forever’: Expert

Brisbane has hit a fresh record home price with experts tipping it could stay more expensive than Melbourne ‘forever’.

The latest PropTrack Home Price Index, out Thursday, saw Brisbane home prices reach a new peak of $853,000 for all dwellings, after a 13.93 per cent jump over the year, while the median house value has grown 13.42 per cent to $951,000.

Melbourne is now going backwards with its overall dwelling price falling -0.82 per cent annually to $803,000, while its housemedian dropped -1.01 per cent to $912,000. The surge – which sees prices 22 per cent higher than the start of 2022 – is being driven by the more affordable parts of the Greater Brisbane region – with Ipswich up 17.15 per cent annually to $693,000 and Logan-Beaudesert jumping 15.99 per cent in the year to $739,000 and North Brisbane up 15.76 per cent to $948,000.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said Brisbane’s 13.93 per cent rate of growth overall was still very strong.

“It may well be the case that Brisbane can support price levels that are above Melbourne forever,” he said. “That may be just an appeal that Brisbane has compared with other cities.”

“What’s surprising is the price growth hasn’t slowed even though Brisbane is now the second most expensive market, overtaking Melbourne and the ACT,” he said. “It just doesn’t even look like stopping at the moment.”

“Brisbane is one of the big markets that I’m going to be watching over the next year.” The biggest increase in Queensland over the year though came out of interstate investor hotspot Townsville where the overall dwelling median price rose 21.48 per cent to $464,000, with Central Queensland also seeing a big jump of 17.1 per cent to $459,000.

Units have grown faster than houses in the past year in Brisbane, rising 16.85 per cent to $663,000, while in regional Queensland they were up 10.86 per cent to $665,000 – $2,000 higher than the capital.

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, prices have surged 72.2 per cent in Brisbane and 72.9 per cent in regional Queensland.

“We’re still seeing affordability flows driving a lot of that. We’re seeing more affordable parts of Brisbane performing the strongest, and even (other Queensland) places like Townsville. A lot of people are looking further and further for relative affordability.” The surge comes as the country’s biggest bank Commonwealth Bank issued a shock prediction that interest rates will be cut as soon as November despite inflation hitting 3.8 per cent in latest data issued Wednesday.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said he not only expects the Reserve Bank to hold fire on rates on this coming Tuesday August 6, but expects it to be forced to cut its cash rate target to 4.15 per cent on November 5.